New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals2
- Artemi PanarinAssists3
- Artemi PanarinPoints3
Devils- Jack HughesGoals1
- Jack HughesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:53Jack Hughes Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (15)5–1
- P314:29Vincent Trocheck Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (46), Erik Gustafsson (21)5–0
- P219:20Alexis Lafrenière Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (34), Artemi Panarin (45)4–0
- P29:53Chris Kreider Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (44), Igor Shesterkin (1)3–0
- P117:56Alexis Lafrenière Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P19:14Mika Zibanejad Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:14Mika Zibanejad Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 1 – 0 NJ · NYR 46% → 62% +16NYR 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P117:56Alexis Lafrenière Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 2 – 0 NJ · NYR 64% → 79% +15NYR 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P29:53Chris Kreider Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (44), Igor Shesterkin (1)NYR 3 – 0 NJ · NYR 83% → 93% +10NYR 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P219:20Alexis Lafrenière Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (34), Artemi Panarin (45)NYR 4 – 0 NJ · NYR 96% → >99% +3NYR 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P314:29Vincent Trocheck Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (46), Erik Gustafsson (21)NYR 5 – 0 NJ · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 49%
- Fair odds
- NJ -117
- NYR +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | 0 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +5 Elo | NYR 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 51.4%11th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 6th of 3116–12 | Road vs home | 12–1420th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–0 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.