New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Erik HaulaGoals1
- Simon NemecAssists1
- Erik HaulaPoints1
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals2
- Dylan StromeAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:27Alex Ovechkin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (18), T.J. Oshie (7)2–6
- P315:34Erik Haula Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Tyler Toffoli (14), Brendan Smith (6)2–5
- P312:27Michael Sgarbossa Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (28), Max Pacioretty (9)1–5
- P38:44Alex Ovechkin Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (17)1–4
- P34:10Dylan Strome Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (25), Sonny Milano (5)1–3
- P24:17Connor McMichael Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P115:06Alexander Holtz Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (13)1–1
- P10:39Connor McMichael Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (18), Rasmus Sandin (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:39Connor McMichael Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (18), Rasmus Sandin (14)NJ 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 54% → 68% +14WSH 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P115:06Alexander Holtz Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (13)NJ 1 – 1 WSH · NJ 31% → 47% +16NJ 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P24:17Connor McMichael Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 53% → 71% +18WSH 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P34:10Dylan Strome Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (25), Sonny Milano (5)NJ 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 78% → 93% +15WSH 78% → 93%+15 pts
- P38:44Alex Ovechkin Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (17)NJ 1 – 4 WSH · WSH 96% → >99% +4WSH 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 49%
- Fair odds
- WSH -117
- NJ +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −3 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +7 Elo | NJ 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.626th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 47.6%23rd of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 6th of 3115–11 | Road vs home | 13–1416th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 1–2 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.