Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals2
- Travis KonecnyAssists2
- Owen TippettPoints2
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- Ondrej PalatAssists2
- Nico HischierPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:15Nathan Bastian Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (17), Curtis Lazar (13)3–6
- P39:07Nick Seeler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (18), Sean Walker (15)3–5
- P32:48Nico Hischier Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (38), John Marino (15)2–5
- P218:23Owen Tippett Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (27), Morgan Frost (18)2–4
- P217:48Nathan Bastian Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (12), Curtis Lazar (12)1–4
- P216:36Brendan Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (14), Nico Hischier (20)1–3
- P27:43Owen Tippett Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (26), Egor Zamula (11)1–2
- P113:30Tyler Toffoli Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Smith (5), Jack Hughes (33)0–2
- P10:32Nico Hischier Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Ondrej Palat (13), John Marino (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:32Nico Hischier Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Ondrej Palat (13), John Marino (14)PHI 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 50% → 64% +14NJ 50% → 64%+14 pts
- P113:30Tyler Toffoli Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Smith (5), Jack Hughes (33)PHI 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 66% → 80% +14NJ 66% → 80%+14 pts
- P27:43Owen Tippett Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (26), Egor Zamula (11)PHI 1 – 2 NJ · PHI 16% → 31% +15PHI 16% → 31%+15 pts
- P216:36Brendan Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (14), Nico Hischier (20)PHI 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 72% → 88% +16NJ 72% → 88%+16 pts
- P217:48Nathan Bastian Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (12), Curtis Lazar (12)PHI 1 – 4 NJ · NJ 89% → 96% +8NJ 89% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 51%
- Fair odds
- NJ -101
- PHI +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.1 – 3.1 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +9 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +5 Elo | NJ 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.5% | Shot share | 51.4%12th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 89.4%28th of 31 |
| 17th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.