Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals3
- Mitch MarnerAssists3
- Auston MatthewsPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:54William Nylander Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (9), Mitchell Marner (38)3–4
- P315:15Travis Konecny Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (14), Joel Farabee (25)3–3
- P314:14Garnet Hathaway Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (6), Nick Seeler (9)2–3
- P218:55Auston Matthews Goal (45) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (8)1–3
- P214:20Auston Matthews Goal (44) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (37), William Nylander (41)1–2
- P211:06Auston Matthews Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (36)1–1
- P17:42Travis Sanheim Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (17), Travis Konecny (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:42Travis Sanheim Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (17), Travis Konecny (25)PHI 1 – 0 TOR · PHI 45% → 61% +15PHI 45% → 61%+15 pts
- P211:06Auston Matthews Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (36)PHI 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 33% → 53% +20TOR 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P214:20Auston Matthews Goal (44) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (37), William Nylander (41)PHI 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 53% → 74% +21TOR 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P315:15Travis Konecny Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (14), Joel Farabee (25)PHI 3 – 3 TOR · PHI 9% → 49% +39PHI 9% → 49%+39 pts
- OT0:54William Nylander Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (9), Mitchell Marner (38)PHI 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 51% → 92% +41TOR 51% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Fair odds
- TOR -122
- PHI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −7 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +32 Elo | TOR 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.6% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%20th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 7th of 3114–11 | Road vs home | 13–1214th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.