Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals1
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists1
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints2
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals1
- Joel ArmiaAssists2
- Joel ArmiaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:57Aliaksei Protas Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (8), Anthony Mantha (11)4–3
- P39:45Nick Suzuki Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (18), Mike Matheson (34)3–3
- P33:27Sonny Milano Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Max Pacioretty (8), Joel Edmundson (3)3–2
- P216:15Alex Newhook Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (3)2–2
- P110:00T.J. Oshie Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (16), Alex Ovechkin (24)2–1
- P15:04Arber Xhekaj Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Joshua Roy (2), Joel Armia (2)1–1
- P13:40Anthony Mantha Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (17), Nick Jensen (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:00T.J. Oshie Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (16), Alex Ovechkin (24)WSH 2 – 1 MTL · WSH 46% → 62% +16WSH 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P216:15Alex Newhook Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (3)WSH 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 31% → 53% +22MTL 31% → 53%+22 pts
- P33:27Sonny Milano Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Max Pacioretty (8), Joel Edmundson (3)WSH 3 – 2 MTL · WSH 48% → 74% +26WSH 48% → 74%+26 pts
- P39:45Nick Suzuki Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (18), Mike Matheson (34)WSH 3 – 3 MTL · MTL 20% → 52% +32MTL 20% → 52%+32 pts
- P311:57Aliaksei Protas Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (8), Anthony Mantha (11)WSH 4 – 3 MTL · WSH 48% → 83% +35WSH 48% → 83%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 53%
- Fair odds
- MTL -120
- WSH +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −15 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +20 Elo | MTL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.5% | Shot share | 45.6%29th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%22nd of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 25th of 3110–14 | Road vs home | 11–1727th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.