Dallas Stars at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Miro HeiskanenGoals1
- Joe PavelskiAssists1
- Miro HeiskanenPoints1
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals1
- Ryan LindgrenAssists1
- Vincent TrocheckPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:19Vincent Trocheck Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (25), Mika Zibanejad (35)1–3
- P29:10Miro Heiskanen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (23), Joe Pavelski (28)1–2
- P28:23Kaapo Kakko Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (20), K'Andre Miller (14)0–2
- P17:46Adam Fox Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (43), Ryan Lindgren (9)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:46Adam Fox Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (43), Ryan Lindgren (9)DAL 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 54% → 69% +15NYR 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P28:23Kaapo Kakko Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (20), K'Andre Miller (14)DAL 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 72% → 86% +14NYR 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P29:10Miro Heiskanen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (23), Joe Pavelski (28)DAL 1 – 2 NYR · DAL 13% → 28% +14DAL 13% → 28%+14 pts
- P318:19Vincent Trocheck Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (25), Mika Zibanejad (35)DAL 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 99% → >99% +1NYR 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 54%
- Fair odds
- NYR -121
- DAL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −6 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +26 Elo | NYR 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.57th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 51.0%14th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.7%11th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 2nd of 3117–11 | Road vs home | 18–72nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.