Philadelphia Flyers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Scott LaughtonAssists1
- Travis SanheimPoints1
Blackhawks- Colin BlackwellGoals1
- Joey AndersonAssists1
- Colin BlackwellPoints1
Scoring summary
- P211:55Garnet Hathaway Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (7), Ryan Poehling (11)3–1
- P23:15Travis Konecny Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P17:35Colin Blackwell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (8)1–1
- P16:18Travis Sanheim Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (19), Joel Farabee (26)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:18Travis Sanheim Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (19), Joel Farabee (26)PHI 1 – 0 CHI · PHI 48% → 63% +15PHI 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P17:35Colin Blackwell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (8)PHI 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 37% → 52% +15CHI 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P23:15Travis Konecny Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 2 – 1 CHI · PHI 48% → 66% +18PHI 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P211:55Garnet Hathaway Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (7), Ryan Poehling (11)PHI 3 – 1 CHI · PHI 69% → 85% +16PHI 69% → 85%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 41%
- Fair odds
- CHI -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −22 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +63 Elo | PHI 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 16th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.5% | Shot share | 44.5%30th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 11th of 3114–12 | Road vs home | 11–1625th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.