Ottawa Senators at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Philipp KurashevAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:08Jason Dickinson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Johnson (5), Joey Anderson (7)2–3
- P210:54Connor Bedard Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (22)2–2
- P28:13Jakob Chychrun Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (22), Tim Stützle (37)2–1
- P115:57Tim Stützle Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (30), Mathieu Joseph (17)1–1
- P113:29Nick Foligno Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Philipp Kurashev (21), Connor Bedard (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:29Nick Foligno Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Philipp Kurashev (21), Connor Bedard (20)OTT 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 53% → 69% +16CHI 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P115:57Tim Stützle Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (30), Mathieu Joseph (17)OTT 1 – 1 CHI · OTT 31% → 47% +16OTT 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P28:13Jakob Chychrun Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (22), Tim Stützle (37)OTT 2 – 1 CHI · OTT 47% → 67% +19OTT 47% → 67%+19 pts
- P210:54Connor Bedard Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (22)OTT 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 32% → 52% +20CHI 32% → 52%+20 pts
- P318:08Jason Dickinson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Johnson (5), Joey Anderson (7)OTT 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 51% → 98% +48CHI 51% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 48%
- Fair odds
- CHI -115
- OTT +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +9 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +16 Elo | OTT 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.2 | Margin | −1.430th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 45.0%30th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 89.9%22nd of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 27th of 317–12 | Road vs home | 10–1628th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.