Anaheim Ducks at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals2
- Cam FowlerAssists2
- Cam FowlerPoints3
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Claude GirouxPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:23Cam Fowler Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (20), Frank Vatrano (18)5–1
- P34:43Claude Giroux Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P32:18Mason McTavish Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (24), Cam Fowler (23)4–0
- P218:59Mason McTavish Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Silfverberg (9), Frank Vatrano (17)3–0
- P217:25Frank Vatrano Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (22), Ryan Strome (19)2–0
- P19:19Pavel Mintyukov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (23), Leo Carlsson (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:19Pavel Mintyukov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (23), Leo Carlsson (13)ANA 1 – 0 OTT · ANA 44% → 60% +16ANA 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P217:25Frank Vatrano Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (22), Ryan Strome (19)ANA 2 – 0 OTT · ANA 69% → 86% +17ANA 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P218:59Mason McTavish Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Silfverberg (9), Frank Vatrano (17)ANA 3 – 0 OTT · ANA 87% → 96% +9ANA 87% → 96%+9 pts
- P32:18Mason McTavish Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (24), Cam Fowler (23)ANA 4 – 0 OTT · ANA 97% → >99% +2ANA 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P34:43Claude Giroux Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 4 – 1 OTT · OTT <1% → 2% +2OTT <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 60%
- Fair odds
- OTT -127
- ANA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −3 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +70 Elo | OTT 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.9 | Margin | −0.122nd of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.3% | Shot share | 51.9%9th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 88.7%31st of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3110–14 | Road vs home | 13–1418th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.