Columbus Blue Jackets at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Jake BeanAssists1
- Boone JennerPoints1
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals3
- Claude GirouxAssists2
- Brady TkachukPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:52Erik Brannstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P216:48Brady Tkachuk Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (29), Thomas Chabot (14)3–5
- P213:54Jack Roslovic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gudbranson (12), Jake Bean (5)3–4
- P210:41Boone Jenner Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (28), Zach Werenski (29)2–4
- P25:37Ridly Greig Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (21), Shane Pinto (5)1–4
- P114:46Claude Giroux Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (7)1–3
- P110:36Brady Tkachuk Goal (24) Batted, assists: none1–2
- P19:48Brady Tkachuk Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (13), Claude Giroux (28)1–1
- P17:11Dmitri Voronkov Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Kent Johnson (10), Kirill Marchenko (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:11Dmitri Voronkov Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Kent Johnson (10), Kirill Marchenko (12)CBJ 1 – 0 OTT · CBJ 44% → 59% +15CBJ 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P19:48Brady Tkachuk Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (13), Claude Giroux (28)CBJ 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 40% → 56% +16OTT 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P110:36Brady Tkachuk Goal (24) Batted, assists: noneCBJ 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 56% → 71% +15OTT 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P213:54Jack Roslovic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gudbranson (12), Jake Bean (5)CBJ 3 – 4 OTT · CBJ 11% → 25% +14CBJ 11% → 25%+14 pts
- P216:48Brady Tkachuk Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (29), Thomas Chabot (14)CBJ 3 – 5 OTT · OTT 75% → 90% +14OTT 75% → 90%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 62%
- Fair odds
- OTT -129
- CBJ +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +8 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +84 Elo | OTT 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | −0.223rd of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.9% | Shot share | 52.1%8th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 88.6%31st of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 29th of 317–17 | Road vs home | 12–1422nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 1–0 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.