Chicago Blackhawks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints3
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Seth JarvisAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:11Jordan Martinook Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (28), Jordan Staal (14)3–6
- P39:08Tyler Johnson Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Connor Bedard (22), Nick Foligno (12)3–5
- P37:00Connor Bedard Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (23), Tyler Johnson (6)2–5
- P32:34Brent Burns Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (39), Seth Jarvis (27)1–5
- P215:23Nick Foligno Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Connor Bedard (21)1–4
- P210:52Sebastian Aho Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (20), Jesper Fast (8)0–4
- P28:22Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (15), Teuvo Teravainen (19)0–3
- P21:59Martin Necas Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P111:45Michael Bunting Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Martin Necas (23), Jack Drury (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:45Michael Bunting Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Martin Necas (23), Jack Drury (17)CHI 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 57% → 72% +15CAR 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P21:59Martin Necas Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 73% → 86% +13CAR 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P28:22Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (15), Teuvo Teravainen (19)CHI 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 87% → 95% +8CAR 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P210:52Sebastian Aho Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (20), Jesper Fast (8)CHI 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 96% → 99% +3CAR 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P39:08Tyler Johnson Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Connor Bedard (22), Nick Foligno (12)CHI 3 – 5 CAR · CHI <1% → 4% +3CHI <1% → 4%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 68%
- Fair odds
- CAR -136
- CHI +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −8 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CAR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +127 Elo | CAR 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.3 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.8% | Shot share | 56.4%1st of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 89.2%30th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 31st of 314–23 | Road vs home | 16–108th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.