Carolina Hurricanes at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals1
- Seth JarvisAssists1
- Seth JarvisPoints2
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:19Stefan Noesen Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (10), Martin Necas (22)3–1
- P30:19Seth Jarvis Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (13), Brady Skjei (23)2–1
- P21:21Andrei Svechnikov Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Seth Jarvis (26), Brett Pesce (5)1–1
- P110:15Jonathan Marchessault Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (20), Ivan Barbashev (19)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:15Jonathan Marchessault Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (20), Ivan Barbashev (19)CAR 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 70% +15VGK 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P21:21Andrei Svechnikov Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Seth Jarvis (26), Brett Pesce (5)CAR 1 – 1 VGK · CAR 28% → 45% +17CAR 28% → 45%+17 pts
- P30:19Seth Jarvis Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (13), Brady Skjei (23)CAR 2 – 1 VGK · CAR 47% → 71% +24CAR 47% → 71%+24 pts
- P36:19Stefan Noesen Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (10), Martin Necas (22)CAR 3 – 1 VGK · CAR 76% → 93% +17CAR 76% → 93%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 59%
- Fair odds
- VGK -126
- CAR +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +13 | CAR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +60 Elo | VGK 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.57th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.5% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 31 |
| 30th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 91.5%5th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 12th of 3113–12 | Road vs home | 19–72nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 1–0 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.