Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Mike MathesonGoals1
- Mike MathesonPoints1
Penguins- Kris LetangGoals2
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Kris LetangPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:35Kris Letang Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P211:51Drew O'Connor Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (8), Erik Karlsson (34)1–3
- P211:30Bryan Rust Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (33), Sidney Crosby (25)1–2
- P111:24Kris Letang Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (27), Drew O'Connor (12)1–1
- P19:05Mike Matheson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:05Mike Matheson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: noneMTL 1 – 0 PIT · MTL 40% → 56% +16MTL 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P111:24Kris Letang Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (27), Drew O'Connor (12)MTL 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 43% → 59% +16PIT 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P211:30Bryan Rust Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (33), Sidney Crosby (25)MTL 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 57% → 76% +19PIT 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P211:51Drew O'Connor Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (8), Erik Karlsson (34)MTL 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 76% → 89% +13PIT 76% → 89%+13 pts
- P318:35Kris Letang Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 1 – 4 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 65%
- Fair odds
- PIT -152
- MTL +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.8 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +2 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +107 Elo | PIT 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.8% | Shot share | 52.1%9th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.6%4th of 31 |
| 28th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 31 |
| 21st of 3111–14 | Road vs home | 12–1420th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–2 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.