Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Zemgus GirgensonsGoals1
- Henri JokiharjuAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints1
Canadiens- Arber XhekajGoals1
- Joshua RoyAssists2
- Joshua RoyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P218:08Alex Tuch Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P29:28Jeff Skinner Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (23), Tage Thompson (17)2–2
- P26:35Jayden Struble Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Joshua Roy (4), Alex Newhook (8)1–2
- P24:20Zemgus Girgensons Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Henri Jokiharju (10), Rasmus Dahlin (29)1–1
- P112:41Arber Xhekaj Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Joshua Roy (3), David Savard (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:41Arber Xhekaj Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Joshua Roy (3), David Savard (9)BUF 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 53% → 69% +16MTL 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P24:20Zemgus Girgensons Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Henri Jokiharju (10), Rasmus Dahlin (29)BUF 1 – 1 MTL · BUF 29% → 47% +18BUF 29% → 47%+18 pts
- P26:35Jayden Struble Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Joshua Roy (4), Alex Newhook (8)BUF 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 53% → 71% +18MTL 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P29:28Jeff Skinner Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (23), Tage Thompson (17)BUF 2 – 2 MTL · BUF 28% → 47% +19BUF 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P218:08Alex Tuch Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 3 – 2 MTL · BUF 48% → 71% +23BUF 48% → 71%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 50%
- Fair odds
- MTL -117
- BUF +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | 0 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +3 Elo | BUF 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.926th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 45.7%29th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.0%21st of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 15th of 3112–13 | Road vs home | 11–1827th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–2 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.