Anaheim Ducks at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals2
- Mason McTavishAssists3
- Troy TerryPoints3
Sabres- Jordan GreenwayGoals1
- Dylan CozensAssists2
- Dylan CozensPoints2
Scoring summary
- P218:56Troy Terry Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (21)4–3
- P215:20Zach Benson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Henri Jokiharju (9), JJ Peterka (18)3–3
- P214:34Frank Vatrano Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (20), Troy Terry (26)3–2
- P211:59Frank Vatrano Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Mason McTavish (19), Troy Terry (25)2–2
- P28:10Tage Thompson Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (28), Dylan Cozens (22)1–2
- P110:10Adam Henrique Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Max Jones (5), Ross Johnston (3)1–1
- P19:07Jordan Greenway Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:10Tage Thompson Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (28), Dylan Cozens (22)ANA 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 55% → 73% +19BUF 55% → 73%+19 pts
- P211:59Frank Vatrano Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Mason McTavish (19), Troy Terry (25)ANA 2 – 2 BUF · ANA 26% → 46% +20ANA 26% → 46%+20 pts
- P214:34Frank Vatrano Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (20), Troy Terry (26)ANA 3 – 2 BUF · ANA 46% → 68% +22ANA 46% → 68%+22 pts
- P215:20Zach Benson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Henri Jokiharju (9), JJ Peterka (18)ANA 3 – 3 BUF · BUF 32% → 54% +22BUF 32% → 54%+22 pts
- P218:56Troy Terry Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (21)ANA 4 – 3 BUF · ANA 46% → 70% +24ANA 46% → 70%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 62%
- Fair odds
- BUF -129
- ANA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +17 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.43 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +82 Elo | BUF 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.0 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.0% | Shot share | 51.7%10th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%22nd of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 25th of 3111–15 | Road vs home | 11–1625th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.