Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Ryan StromeGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists1
- Ryan StromePoints2
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals3
- Timothy LiljegrenAssists3
- Auston MatthewsPoints5
Scoring summary
- P317:54Nicholas Robertson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (6)2–9
- P315:36Ryan Strome Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Lindstrom (2), Alex Killorn (14)2–8
- P217:58Bobby McMann Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (22), Timothy Liljegren (12)1–8
- P25:39Auston Matthews Goal (48) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Knies (13), Jake McCabe (14)1–7
- P22:51Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Auston Matthews (23), Timothy Liljegren (11)1–6
- P20:50Auston Matthews Goal (47) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (40), William Nylander (43)1–5
- P117:37William Nylander Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (10), Auston Matthews (22)1–4
- P111:32Frank Vatrano Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (21), Jakob Silfverberg (10)1–3
- P110:33Jake McCabe Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (42), Max Domi (21)0–3
- P16:06Bobby McMann Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (9), Max Lajoie (1)0–2
- P13:41Auston Matthews Goal (46) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (12), Mitchell Marner (39)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:41Auston Matthews Goal (46) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (12), Mitchell Marner (39)ANA 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 57% → 71% +14TOR 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P16:06Bobby McMann Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (9), Max Lajoie (1)ANA 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 71% → 83% +12TOR 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P110:33Jake McCabe Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (42), Max Domi (21)ANA 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 83% → 91% +8TOR 83% → 91%+8 pts
- P111:32Frank Vatrano Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (21), Jakob Silfverberg (10)ANA 1 – 3 TOR · ANA 8% → 16% +8ANA 8% → 16%+8 pts
- P117:37William Nylander Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (10), Auston Matthews (22)ANA 1 – 4 TOR · TOR 85% → 93% +8TOR 85% → 93%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 66%
- Fair odds
- TOR -134
- ANA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +6 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +112 Elo | TOR 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.1% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 17th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 21st of 3111–14 | Road vs home | 14–1214th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.