Los Angeles Kings at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Drew DoughtyGoals1
- Drew DoughtyAssists2
- Drew DoughtyPoints3
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- Pius SuterAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:38Trevor Moore Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Kevin Fiala (34)5–1
- P312:31Brandt Clarke Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (28), Trevor Lewis (6)4–1
- P34:27Kevin Fiala Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Anze Kopitar (32), Drew Doughty (23)3–1
- P32:55Brock Boeser Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (52), Pius Suter (12)2–1
- P25:14Anze Kopitar Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (27), Drew Doughty (22)2–0
- P113:19Drew Doughty Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (33), Trevor Moore (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:19Drew Doughty Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (33), Trevor Moore (17)LA 1 – 0 VAN · LA 44% → 61% +16LA 44% → 61%+16 pts
- P25:14Anze Kopitar Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (27), Drew Doughty (22)LA 2 – 0 VAN · LA 64% → 80% +16LA 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P32:55Brock Boeser Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (52), Pius Suter (12)LA 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 10% → 27% +17VAN 10% → 27%+17 pts
- P34:27Kevin Fiala Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Anze Kopitar (32), Drew Doughty (23)LA 3 – 1 VAN · LA 74% → 91% +17LA 74% → 91%+17 pts
- P312:31Brandt Clarke Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (28), Trevor Lewis (6)LA 4 – 1 VAN · LA 98% → >99% +2LA 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 61%
- Fair odds
- VAN -129
- LA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −1 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +79 Elo | VAN 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.3% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 9th of 3116–13 | Road vs home | 19–83rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.