Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Jakob SilfverbergGoals1
- Cam FowlerAssists1
- Jakob SilfverbergPoints1
Kings- Drew DoughtyGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists2
- Drew DoughtyPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Leo Carlsson Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Trevor Moore Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P214:24Drew Doughty Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (32), Kevin Fiala (31)2–2
- P29:08Sam Carrick Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Adam Henrique (21)2–1
- P115:23Kevin Fiala Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (31), Drew Doughty (20)1–1
- P19:33Jakob Silfverberg Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (22), Cam Fowler (24)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:33Jakob Silfverberg Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (22), Cam Fowler (24)ANA 1 – 0 LA · ANA 44% → 60% +16ANA 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P115:23Kevin Fiala Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (31), Drew Doughty (20)ANA 1 – 1 LA · LA 39% → 56% +17LA 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P29:08Sam Carrick Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Adam Henrique (21)ANA 2 – 1 LA · ANA 45% → 65% +20ANA 45% → 65%+20 pts
- P214:24Drew Doughty Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (32), Kevin Fiala (31)ANA 2 – 2 LA · LA 33% → 54% +22LA 33% → 54%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 62%
- Fair odds
- LA -130
- ANA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −5 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +85 Elo | LA 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.0 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.9% | Shot share | 54.3%5th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 91.0%10th of 31 |
| 11th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3112–15 | Road vs home | 9–1628th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–1 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.