Columbus Blue Jackets at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Sean KuralyGoals2
- Boone JennerAssists2
- Johnny GaudreauPoints3
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals2
- Pavel MintyukovAssists3
- Troy TerryPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:27Boone Jenner Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (11)7–4
- P37:39Sean Kuraly Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (12), Alexandre Texier (10)6–4
- P36:50Yegor Chinakhov Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (32), Boone Jenner (8)5–4
- P219:36Alex Killorn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (14), Pavel Mintyukov (20)4–4
- P218:49Mason McTavish Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Troy Terry (28), Pavel Mintyukov (19)4–3
- P216:05Mason McTavish Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (27), Pavel Mintyukov (18)4–2
- P29:07Troy Terry Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (9), Frank Vatrano (19)4–1
- P22:49Sean Kuraly Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Texier (9)4–0
- P118:30Zach Werenski Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Boone Jenner (7), Jack Roslovic (12)3–0
- P19:32Johnny Gaudreau Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Bean (6)2–0
- P13:32Zach Werenski Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (31), Jack Roslovic (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:32Zach Werenski Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (31), Jack Roslovic (11)CBJ 1 – 0 ANA · CBJ 40% → 55% +15CBJ 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P218:49Mason McTavish Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Troy Terry (28), Pavel Mintyukov (19)CBJ 4 – 3 ANA · ANA 14% → 32% +18ANA 14% → 32%+18 pts
- P219:36Alex Killorn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (14), Pavel Mintyukov (20)CBJ 4 – 4 ANA · ANA 32% → 56% +24ANA 32% → 56%+24 pts
- P36:50Yegor Chinakhov Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (32), Boone Jenner (8)CBJ 5 – 4 ANA · CBJ 45% → 75% +29CBJ 45% → 75%+29 pts
- P37:39Sean Kuraly Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (12), Alexandre Texier (10)CBJ 6 – 4 ANA · CBJ 75% → 93% +18CBJ 75% → 93%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 63%
- Fair odds
- ANA -150
- CBJ +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +7 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +90 Elo | ANA 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.929th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 45.7%29th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%25th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 29th of 318–19 | Road vs home | 7–1831st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–1 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.