Columbus Blue Jackets at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals1
- Erik GudbransonAssists2
- Erik GudbransonPoints2
Sharks- Fabian ZetterlundGoals1
- Calen AddisonAssists2
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:47Boone Jenner Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (30), Ivan Provorov (20)4–3
- P215:29Fabian Zetterlund Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Calen Addison (13), Mikael Granlund (25)3–3
- P27:33Anthony Duclair Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (8), Calen Addison (12)3–2
- P27:14Dmitri Voronkov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (12), Erik Gudbranson (14)3–1
- P116:24Kirill Marchenko Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (11), Erik Gudbranson (13)2–1
- P115:16Zach Werenski Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (29), Jack Roslovic (9)1–1
- P13:39Anthony Duclair Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:16Zach Werenski Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (29), Jack Roslovic (9)CBJ 1 – 1 SJ · CBJ 30% → 46% +16CBJ 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P116:24Kirill Marchenko Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (11), Erik Gudbranson (13)CBJ 2 – 1 SJ · CBJ 46% → 63% +17CBJ 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P27:33Anthony Duclair Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (8), Calen Addison (12)CBJ 3 – 2 SJ · SJ 18% → 34% +16SJ 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P215:29Fabian Zetterlund Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Calen Addison (13), Mikael Granlund (25)CBJ 3 – 3 SJ · SJ 31% → 53% +22SJ 31% → 53%+22 pts
- P319:47Boone Jenner Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (30), Ivan Provorov (20)CBJ 4 – 3 SJ · CBJ 50% → >99% +50CBJ 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 52%
- Fair odds
- SJ -119
- CBJ +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −2 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SJ +14 Elo | SJ 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.230th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.931st of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −1.731st of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 41.5%31st of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%23rd of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 29th of 317–18 | Road vs home | 9–1427th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.