Columbus Blue Jackets at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam BoqvistGoals1
- Boone JennerAssists1
- Adam BoqvistPoints1
Kings- Pierre-Luc DuboisGoals2
- Quinton ByfieldAssists1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:37Drew Doughty Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (16), Phillip Danault (22)1–5
- P315:56Kevin Fiala Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (19), Adrian Kempe (29)1–4
- P211:49Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (24), Alex Turcotte (2)1–3
- P24:41Adam Boqvist Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Boone Jenner (6), Jack Roslovic (10)1–2
- P21:27Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (4), Cam Talbot (2)0–2
- P118:22Quinton Byfield Goal (18) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:22Quinton Byfield Goal (18) Backhand, assists: noneCBJ 0 – 1 LA · LA 55% → 72% +16LA 55% → 72%+16 pts
- P21:27Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (4), Cam Talbot (2)CBJ 0 – 2 LA · LA 72% → 85% +13LA 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P24:41Adam Boqvist Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Boone Jenner (6), Jack Roslovic (10)CBJ 1 – 2 LA · CBJ 14% → 28% +13CBJ 14% → 28%+13 pts
- P211:49Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (24), Alex Turcotte (2)CBJ 1 – 3 LA · LA 74% → 88% +14LA 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P315:56Kevin Fiala Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (19), Adrian Kempe (29)CBJ 1 – 4 LA · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 61%
- Fair odds
- LA -128
- CBJ +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −7 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +77 Elo | LA 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.3% | Shot share | 54.3%5th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%10th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 31 |
| 29th of 318–18 | Road vs home | 8–1529th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 0–1 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.