Nashville Predators at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Colton SissonsGoals1
- Colton SissonsAssists2
- Colton SissonsPoints3
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:07Jeremy Lauzon Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (14)4–1
- P317:00Colton Sissons Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (5)3–1
- P214:46Mark Jankowski Goal (2) Poke, assists: Luke Evangelista (15), Tommy Novak (17)2–1
- P119:07Kevin Fiala Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (29), Adrian Kempe (30)1–1
- P18:47Yakov Trenin Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Colton Sissons (13), Ryan McDonagh (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:47Yakov Trenin Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Colton Sissons (13), Ryan McDonagh (16)NSH 1 – 0 LA · NSH 45% → 61% +16NSH 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P119:07Kevin Fiala Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (29), Adrian Kempe (30)NSH 1 – 1 LA · LA 37% → 54% +17LA 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P214:46Mark Jankowski Goal (2) Poke, assists: Luke Evangelista (15), Tommy Novak (17)NSH 2 – 1 LA · NSH 46% → 68% +22NSH 46% → 68%+22 pts
- P317:00Colton Sissons Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (5)NSH 3 – 1 LA · NSH 95% → >99% +5NSH 95% → >99%+5 pts
- P319:07Jeremy Lauzon Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (14)NSH 4 – 1 LA · NSH >99% → 100% +0NSH >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 57%
- Fair odds
- LA -124
- NSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −2 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +50 Elo | LA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 54.3%5th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 91.0%10th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 31 |
| 5th of 3115–11 | Road vs home | 9–1527th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–1 LA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.