Nashville Predators at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Blues- Nathan WalkerGoals1
- Nick LeddyAssists1
- Nathan WalkerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:28Ryan O'Reilly Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (30), Filip Forsberg (29)5–2
- P312:52Nathan Walker Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Kevin Hayes (12), Nick Leddy (18)4–2
- P37:51Luke Schenn Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (13), Kiefer Sherwood (7)4–1
- P36:48Filip Forsberg Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (39), Ryan O'Reilly (27)3–1
- P213:09Luke Evangelista Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (4)2–1
- P119:05Jordan Kyrou Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (42), Torey Krug (26)1–1
- P14:11Colton Sissons Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:11Colton Sissons Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 1 – 0 STL · NSH 44% → 59% +15NSH 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P119:05Jordan Kyrou Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (42), Torey Krug (26)NSH 1 – 1 STL · STL 38% → 55% +17STL 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P213:09Luke Evangelista Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (4)NSH 2 – 1 STL · NSH 46% → 67% +21NSH 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P36:48Filip Forsberg Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (39), Ryan O'Reilly (27)NSH 3 – 1 STL · NSH 76% → 93% +17NSH 76% → 93%+17 pts
- P37:51Luke Schenn Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (13), Kiefer Sherwood (7)NSH 4 – 1 STL · NSH 94% → >99% +5NSH 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 60%
- Fair odds
- STL -127
- NSH +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +4 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +71 Elo | STL 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 47.0%26th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.4%7th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 10th of 3113–11 | Road vs home | 15–98th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.