Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Tommy NovakGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Ryan McDonaghPoints2
Golden Knights- Michael AmadioGoals1
- Alec MartinezAssists2
- Alec MartinezPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:11Gustav Nyquist Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P317:01Michael Amadio Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alec Martinez (12), Ivan Barbashev (20)4–3
- P30:47William Karlsson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (21), Shea Theodore (15)4–2
- P215:58Cole Smith Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (7), Kiefer Sherwood (8)4–1
- P28:04Tommy Novak Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (15), Alexandre Carrier (12)3–1
- P119:08Cody Glass Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (41), Yakov Trenin (4)2–1
- P114:09Alex Pietrangelo Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alec Martinez (11), Chandler Stephenson (21)1–1
- P15:35Luke Evangelista Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (40), Ryan McDonagh (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:35Luke Evangelista Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (40), Ryan McDonagh (14)NSH 1 – 0 VGK · NSH 44% → 59% +15NSH 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P114:09Alex Pietrangelo Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alec Martinez (11), Chandler Stephenson (21)NSH 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 39% → 56% +17VGK 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P119:08Cody Glass Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (41), Yakov Trenin (4)NSH 2 – 1 VGK · NSH 45% → 62% +17NSH 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P28:04Tommy Novak Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (15), Alexandre Carrier (12)NSH 3 – 1 VGK · NSH 65% → 81% +16NSH 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P215:58Cole Smith Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (7), Kiefer Sherwood (8)NSH 4 – 1 VGK · NSH 85% → 95% +10NSH 85% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 63%
- Fair odds
- VGK -130
- NSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +12 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +90 Elo | VGK 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.57th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.9% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 91.6%5th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 7th of 3114–11 | Road vs home | 19–84th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 0–1 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.