Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mason MorelliGoals1
- Alec MartinezAssists3
- Alec MartinezPoints3
SharksScoring summary
- P218:44Keegan Kolesar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alec Martinez (10), Mason Morelli (1)4–0
- P119:12Mason Morelli Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (24), Alec Martinez (9)3–0
- P14:25William Karlsson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Alec Martinez (8), Mark Stone (37)2–0
- P12:28Michael Amadio Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (5)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:28Michael Amadio Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (5)VGK 1 – 0 SJ · VGK 47% → 62% +15VGK 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P14:25William Karlsson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Alec Martinez (8), Mark Stone (37)VGK 2 – 0 SJ · VGK 62% → 75% +13VGK 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P119:12Mason Morelli Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (24), Alec Martinez (9)VGK 3 – 0 SJ · VGK 79% → 90% +10VGK 79% → 90%+10 pts
- P218:44Keegan Kolesar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alec Martinez (10), Mason Morelli (1)VGK 4 – 0 SJ · VGK 96% → >99% +3VGK 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 46%
- Fair odds
- SJ -114
- VGK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +14 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +28 Elo | VGK 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.230th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.931st of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −1.731st of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 41.6%31st of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%22nd of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 18th of 3111–13 | Road vs home | 9–1528th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 3–0 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.