Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Jakob PelletierAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:46Mikael Backlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (13)2–4
- P312:09Yegor Sharangovich Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dryden Hunt (1), Jakob Pelletier (2)2–3
- P218:54Kevin Fiala Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Anze Kopitar (31), Quinton Byfield (26)2–2
- P213:52Blake Coleman Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (28), Chris Tanev (12)1–2
- P212:56Andrew Mangiapane Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (23), Jacob Markstrom (5)1–1
- P212:08Phillip Danault Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (32), Drew Doughty (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:08Phillip Danault Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (32), Drew Doughty (21)LA 1 – 0 CGY · LA 44% → 65% +21LA 44% → 65%+21 pts
- P212:56Andrew Mangiapane Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (23), Jacob Markstrom (5)LA 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 35% → 56% +21CGY 35% → 56%+21 pts
- P213:52Blake Coleman Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (28), Chris Tanev (12)LA 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 56% → 76% +20CGY 56% → 76%+20 pts
- P218:54Kevin Fiala Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Anze Kopitar (31), Quinton Byfield (26)LA 2 – 2 CGY · LA 22% → 44% +22LA 22% → 44%+22 pts
- P312:09Yegor Sharangovich Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dryden Hunt (1), Jakob Pelletier (2)LA 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 53% → 86% +33CGY 53% → 86%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 60%
- Fair odds
- CGY -146
- LA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 3.4 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +8 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +71 Elo | CGY 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.6% | Shot share | 51.1%12th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 5th of 3116–12 | Road vs home | 13–1421st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–0 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.