Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Dryden HuntGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists2
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints2
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Zach HymanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:16Mattias Janmark Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (20)6–3
- P312:51Blake Coleman Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (21)6–2
- P214:09Noah Hanifin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Zary (17), Rasmus Andersson (24)5–2
- P211:47Dryden Hunt Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (27), Oliver Kylington (1)4–2
- P24:34Zach Hyman Goal (37) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (43), Connor McDavid (68)3–2
- P118:29Zach Hyman Goal (36) Batted, assists: Connor McDavid (67), Evan Bouchard (40)3–1
- P115:53Noah Hanifin Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (17), Jonathan Huberdeau (26)3–0
- P19:11Martin Pospisil Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Zary (16), Brayden Pachal (1)2–0
- P12:02Nazem Kadri Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Walker Duehr (5), Noah Hanifin (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:02Nazem Kadri Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Walker Duehr (5), Noah Hanifin (22)CGY 1 – 0 EDM · CGY 48% → 62% +15CGY 48% → 62%+15 pts
- P19:11Martin Pospisil Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Zary (16), Brayden Pachal (1)CGY 2 – 0 EDM · CGY 63% → 77% +14CGY 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P115:53Noah Hanifin Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (17), Jonathan Huberdeau (26)CGY 3 – 0 EDM · CGY 79% → 89% +10CGY 79% → 89%+10 pts
- P24:34Zach Hyman Goal (37) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (43), Connor McDavid (68)CGY 3 – 2 EDM · EDM 18% → 33% +15EDM 18% → 33%+15 pts
- P211:47Dryden Hunt Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (27), Oliver Kylington (1)CGY 4 – 2 EDM · CGY 69% → 85% +16CGY 69% → 85%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 59%
- Fair odds
- EDM -110
- CGY +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −16 | −2 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +64 Elo | EDM 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 54.6%4th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%18th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 21st of 3112–15 | Road vs home | 16–96th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 0–2 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.