Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals2
- Marcus JohanssonAssists1
- Matt BoldyPoints2
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:33Mats Zuccarello Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P314:51Zach Hyman Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (42), Connor McDavid (66)3–2
- P312:18Matt Boldy Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (14), Marcus Johansson (18)3–1
- P39:31Jonas Brodin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (3), Kirill Kaprizov (36)2–1
- P210:27Leon Draisaitl Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (65), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (35)1–1
- P119:37Matt Boldy Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (12), Joel Eriksson Ek (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:37Matt Boldy Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (12), Joel Eriksson Ek (25)MIN 1 – 0 EDM · MIN 45% → 62% +18MIN 45% → 62%+18 pts
- P210:27Leon Draisaitl Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (65), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (35)MIN 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 34% → 54% +20EDM 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P39:31Jonas Brodin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (3), Kirill Kaprizov (36)MIN 2 – 1 EDM · MIN 47% → 79% +32MIN 47% → 79%+32 pts
- P312:18Matt Boldy Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (14), Marcus Johansson (18)MIN 3 – 1 EDM · MIN 83% → 98% +14MIN 83% → 98%+14 pts
- P314:51Zach Hyman Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (42), Connor McDavid (66)MIN 3 – 2 EDM · EDM <1% → 12% +11EDM <1% → 12%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 61%
- Fair odds
- EDM -128
- MIN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +76 Elo | EDM 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.64th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.8% | Shot share | 54.4%4th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%18th of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3111–14 | Road vs home | 16–84th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.