Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marco RossiGoals2
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Marco RossiPoints2
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals2
- Kyle ConnorAssists2
- Gabriel VilardiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:02Nino Niederreiter Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (17)3–6
- P314:11Marco Rossi Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (35)3–5
- P312:33Kirill Kaprizov Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (24), Mats Zuccarello (35)2–5
- P310:36Sean Monahan Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Dylan DeMelo (17), Nikolaj Ehlers (21)1–5
- P39:38Gabriel Vilardi Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Josh Morrissey (31), Kyle Connor (17)1–4
- P214:10Marco Rossi Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (2), Frederick Gaudreau (8)1–3
- P21:54Kyle Connor Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (13), Dylan DeMelo (16)0–3
- P19:34Mason Appleton Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (16), Nino Niederreiter (14)0–2
- P19:20Gabriel Vilardi Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Kyle Connor (16), Josh Morrissey (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:20Gabriel Vilardi Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Kyle Connor (16), Josh Morrissey (30)MIN 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 51% → 67% +15WPG 51% → 67%+15 pts
- P19:34Mason Appleton Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (16), Nino Niederreiter (14)MIN 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 67% → 80% +13WPG 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P21:54Kyle Connor Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (13), Dylan DeMelo (16)MIN 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 83% → 92% +9WPG 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P214:10Marco Rossi Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (2), Frederick Gaudreau (8)MIN 1 – 3 WPG · MIN 5% → 13% +8MIN 5% → 13%+8 pts
- P39:38Gabriel Vilardi Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Josh Morrissey (31), Kyle Connor (17)MIN 1 – 4 WPG · WPG 96% → >99% +3WPG 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 54%
- Fair odds
- WPG -106
- MIN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.1 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −5 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +30 Elo | WPG 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.926th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 51.2%13th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 92.5%1st of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 19th of 3111–13 | Road vs home | 17–96th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–2 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.