Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals1
- Andreas EnglundAssists1
- Trevor MoorePoints1
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:31Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (16) Deflected, assists: Connor Brown (5), Mattias Janmark (6)2–4
- P31:25Evan Bouchard Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (44), Connor McDavid (70)2–3
- P215:56Leon Draisaitl Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (41), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (36)2–2
- P27:34Alex Laferriere Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (30), Matt Roy (14)2–1
- P119:36Zach Hyman Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (69)1–1
- P16:45Trevor Moore Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (25), Andreas Englund (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:45Trevor Moore Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (25), Andreas Englund (8)LA 1 – 0 EDM · LA 45% → 60% +15LA 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P119:36Zach Hyman Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (69)LA 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 37% → 55% +18EDM 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P27:34Alex Laferriere Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (30), Matt Roy (14)LA 2 – 1 EDM · LA 46% → 65% +19LA 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P215:56Leon Draisaitl Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (41), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (36)LA 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 31% → 54% +22EDM 31% → 54%+22 pts
- P31:25Evan Bouchard Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (44), Connor McDavid (70)LA 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 53% → 77% +24EDM 53% → 77%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Fair odds
- EDM -126
- LA +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −6 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +58 Elo | EDM 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.6% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3116–11 | Road vs home | 16–108th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–1 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.