Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Vladislav NamestnikovGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists1
- Vladislav NamestnikovPoints1
Stars- Joe PavelskiGoals1
- Joe PavelskiAssists1
- Joe PavelskiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:50Roope Hintz Goal (24) Backhand, assists: none1–4
- P213:24Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (24), Neal Pionk (17)1–3
- P118:17Logan Stankoven Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (24), Jamie Benn (26)0–3
- P116:41Joe Pavelski Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Jani Hakanpää (9), Roope Hintz (28)0–2
- P16:52Jason Robertson Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:52Jason Robertson Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (30)WPG 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 54% → 69% +15DAL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P116:41Joe Pavelski Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Jani Hakanpää (9), Roope Hintz (28)WPG 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 70% → 83% +13DAL 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P118:17Logan Stankoven Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (24), Jamie Benn (26)WPG 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 83% → 92% +9DAL 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P213:24Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (24), Neal Pionk (17)WPG 1 – 3 DAL · WPG 4% → 12% +8WPG 4% → 12%+8 pts
- P318:50Roope Hintz Goal (24) Backhand, assists: noneWPG 1 – 4 DAL · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 53%
- Fair odds
- DAL -120
- WPG +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +21 Elo | DAL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 6th of 3114–11 | Road vs home | 16–1213th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 0–2 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.