New York Islanders at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Ryan PulockGoals1
- Ryan PulockAssists1
- Ryan PulockPoints2
Stars- Logan StankovenGoals1
- Logan StankovenAssists1
- Logan StankovenPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:54Bo Horvat Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (44), Mike Reilly (10)3–2
- P218:17Logan Stankoven Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (22)2–2
- P215:24Kyle MacLean Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (12), Ryan Pulock (6)2–1
- P27:11Matt Duchene Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (21), Logan Stankoven (1)1–1
- P115:59Ryan Pulock Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (7), Casey Cizikas (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:59Ryan Pulock Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (7), Casey Cizikas (7)NYI 1 – 0 DAL · NYI 44% → 61% +17NYI 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P27:11Matt Duchene Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (21), Logan Stankoven (1)NYI 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 36% → 55% +19DAL 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P215:24Kyle MacLean Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (12), Ryan Pulock (6)NYI 2 – 1 DAL · NYI 45% → 67% +22NYI 45% → 67%+22 pts
- P218:17Logan Stankoven Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (22)NYI 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 31% → 54% +23DAL 31% → 54%+23 pts
- OT2:54Bo Horvat Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (44), Mike Reilly (10)NYI 3 – 2 DAL · NYI 49% → 97% +49NYI 49% → 97%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 66%
- Fair odds
- DAL -134
- NYI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +2 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +115 Elo | DAL 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.64th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.7% | Shot share | 50.6%14th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 28th of 319–17 | Road vs home | 16–1110th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 1–0 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.