New York Islanders at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals3
- Robert ThomasAssists3
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:21Pavel Buchnevich Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (46)0–4
- P25:10Pavel Buchnevich Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (26), Robert Thomas (45)0–3
- P24:45Pavel Buchnevich Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Robert Thomas (44), Jordan Kyrou (25)0–2
- P24:38Brandon Saad Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (15), Brayden Schenn (18)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:38Brandon Saad Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (15), Brayden Schenn (18)NYI 0 – 1 STL · STL 55% → 72% +18STL 55% → 72%+18 pts
- P24:45Pavel Buchnevich Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Robert Thomas (44), Jordan Kyrou (25)NYI 0 – 2 STL · STL 72% → 86% +13STL 72% → 86%+13 pts
- P25:10Pavel Buchnevich Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (26), Robert Thomas (45)NYI 0 – 3 STL · STL 86% → 94% +8STL 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P39:21Pavel Buchnevich Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (46)NYI 0 – 4 STL · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 59%
- Fair odds
- STL -127
- NYI +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +2 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +66 Elo | STL 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.2% | Shot share | 47.1%26th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 91.3%6th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 31 |
| 28th of 319–16 | Road vs home | 15–1112th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.