Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists3
- Mitch MarnerPoints3
Blues- Brandon SaadGoals1
- Oskar SundqvistAssists1
- Brandon SaadPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:22Bobby McMann Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (43), TJ Brodie (13)4–2
- P318:52Pavel Buchnevich Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (27), Robert Thomas (43)3–2
- P37:29William Nylander Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P30:45Auston Matthews Goal (49) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (42)2–1
- P217:14Brandon Saad Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (12), Oskar Sundqvist (14)1–1
- P20:22Matthew Knies Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (24), Mitchell Marner (41)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:22Matthew Knies Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (24), Mitchell Marner (41)TOR 1 – 0 STL · TOR 46% → 64% +18TOR 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P217:14Brandon Saad Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (12), Oskar Sundqvist (14)TOR 1 – 1 STL · STL 30% → 53% +23STL 30% → 53%+23 pts
- P30:45Auston Matthews Goal (49) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (42)TOR 2 – 1 STL · TOR 47% → 72% +24TOR 47% → 72%+24 pts
- P37:29William Nylander Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 3 – 1 STL · TOR 77% → 94% +17TOR 77% → 94%+17 pts
- P318:52Pavel Buchnevich Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (27), Robert Thomas (43)TOR 3 – 2 STL · STL <1% → <1% +0STL <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -121
- TOR +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −2 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +24 Elo | STL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.4% | Shot share | 47.1%26th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 91.3%8th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 14th of 3112–12 | Road vs home | 15–109th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.