Dallas Stars at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Miro HeiskanenAssists2
- Miro HeiskanenPoints2
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Jesper FastAssists1
- Sebastian AhoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P28:15Wyatt Johnston Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (25), Miro Heiskanen (30)2–1
- P22:16Sebastian Aho Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Fast (10), Andrei Svechnikov (22)1–1
- P116:38Jason Robertson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (29), Joe Pavelski (29)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:38Jason Robertson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (29), Joe Pavelski (29)DAL 1 – 0 CAR · DAL 45% → 62% +17DAL 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P22:16Sebastian Aho Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Fast (10), Andrei Svechnikov (22)DAL 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 37% → 55% +18CAR 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P28:15Wyatt Johnston Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (25), Miro Heiskanen (30)DAL 2 – 1 CAR · DAL 46% → 65% +20DAL 46% → 65%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 59%
- Fair odds
- CAR -126
- DAL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +21 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.52 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +63 Elo | CAR 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 56.2%1st of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 89.5%28th of 31 |
| 11th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 6th of 3117–13 | Road vs home | 18–106th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.