Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors CAR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Jesper FastAssists1
- Sebastian AhoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:41Sebastian Aho Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (21), Jesper Fast (9)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P319:41Sebastian Aho Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (21), Jesper Fast (9)FLA 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 50% → >99% +50CAR 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Fair odds
- CAR -122
- FLA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +19 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.47 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +32 Elo | CAR 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.0% | Shot share | 56.6%1st of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 89.1%30th of 31 |
| 1st of 319–1 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 1st of 3119–9 | Road vs home | 17–107th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.