Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam BennettGoals2
- Sam BennettAssists2
- Sam BennettPoints4
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals1
- Anthony CirelliAssists1
- Brayden PointPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:51Brayden Point Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (58), Victor Hedman (45)9–2
- P34:09Carter Verhaeghe Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (19), Sam Reinhart (27)9–1
- P31:56Sam Bennett Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (25), Anton Lundell (16)8–1
- P31:05Carter Verhaeghe Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (14), Matthew Tkachuk (44)7–1
- P21:37Matthew Tkachuk Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (28), Brandon Montour (12)6–1
- P20:23Matthew Tkachuk Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (42), Brandon Montour (11)5–1
- P118:38Gustav Forsling Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P117:44Kevin Stenlund Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (2), Josh Mahura (6)3–1
- P112:28Sam Bennett Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (43), Dmitry Kulikov (14)2–1
- P17:01Brandon Montour Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (13)1–1
- P10:24Brandon Hagel Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:24Brandon Hagel Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (19)FLA 0 – 1 TB · TB 54% → 68% +14TB 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P17:01Brandon Montour Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (13)FLA 1 – 1 TB · FLA 31% → 46% +15FLA 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P112:28Sam Bennett Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (43), Dmitry Kulikov (14)FLA 2 – 1 TB · FLA 46% → 62% +16FLA 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P117:44Kevin Stenlund Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (2), Josh Mahura (6)FLA 3 – 1 TB · FLA 63% → 78% +15FLA 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P118:38Gustav Forsling Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 4 – 1 TB · FLA 78% → 89% +11FLA 78% → 89%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Fair odds
- TB -120
- FLA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +17 Elo | TB 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.215th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.1% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%27th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 1st of 3118–9 | Road vs home | 17–86th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–0 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.