Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Thomas ChabotGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Panthers- Brandon MontourGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists1
- Brandon MontourPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:36Anton Lundell Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (45), Brandon Montour (13)2–3
- P38:46Tim Stützle Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (32), Thomas Chabot (15)2–2
- P35:36Thomas Chabot Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P217:01Brandon Montour Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P10:19Aaron Ekblad Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (29), Sam Reinhart (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:19Aaron Ekblad Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (29), Sam Reinhart (28)OTT 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 61% → 74% +13FLA 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P217:01Brandon Montour Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 78% → 91% +13FLA 78% → 91%+13 pts
- P35:36Thomas Chabot Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneOTT 1 – 2 FLA · OTT 5% → 19% +14OTT 5% → 19%+14 pts
- P38:46Tim Stützle Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (32), Thomas Chabot (15)OTT 2 – 2 FLA · OTT 17% → 45% +28OTT 17% → 45%+28 pts
- OT1:36Anton Lundell Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (45), Brandon Montour (13)OTT 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 53% → 95% +42FLA 53% → 95%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 69%
- Fair odds
- FLA -158
- OTT +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.8 – 3.4 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +2 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +138 Elo | FLA 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.4% | Shot share | 55.0%2nd of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 91.6%4th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 27th of 318–13 | Road vs home | 15–109th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 0–1 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.