Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Mathieu JosephGoals2
- Artem ZubAssists2
- Mathieu JosephPoints2
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals1
- Brandon HagelAssists1
- Brayden PointPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:36Brayden Point Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (33)4–2
- P34:01Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (20), Shane Pinto (6)4–1
- P216:55Mitchell Chaffee Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P215:49Mathieu Joseph Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (17)3–0
- P113:35Mathieu Joseph Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (31), Tim Stützle (38)2–0
- P110:45Tim Stützle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (18), Artem Zub (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:45Tim Stützle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (18), Artem Zub (16)OTT 1 – 0 TB · OTT 45% → 61% +16OTT 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P113:35Mathieu Joseph Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (31), Tim Stützle (38)OTT 2 – 0 TB · OTT 61% → 76% +15OTT 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P215:49Mathieu Joseph Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (17)OTT 3 – 0 TB · OTT 86% → 95% +9OTT 86% → 95%+9 pts
- P216:55Mitchell Chaffee Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 3 – 1 TB · TB 5% → 14% +9TB 5% → 14%+9 pts
- P34:01Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (20), Shane Pinto (6)OTT 4 – 1 TB · OTT 91% → 98% +7OTT 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -126
- OTT +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −3 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +59 Elo | TB 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.4% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 27th of 317–13 | Road vs home | 17–96th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.