Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Joe PavelskiGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists1
- Joe PavelskiPoints1
Senators- Josh NorrisGoals2
- Drake BathersonAssists2
- Josh NorrisPoints2
Scoring summary
- P219:43Shane Pinto Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (33), Brady Tkachuk (21)1–4
- P28:56Thomas Chabot Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (39), Mathieu Joseph (18)1–3
- P25:37Josh Norris Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (24), Ridly Greig (12)1–2
- P119:50Joe Pavelski Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (24), Miro Heiskanen (28)1–1
- P14:12Josh Norris Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Drake Batherson (23), Jake Sanderson (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:12Josh Norris Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Drake Batherson (23), Jake Sanderson (19)DAL 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 54% → 68% +14OTT 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P119:50Joe Pavelski Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (24), Miro Heiskanen (28)DAL 1 – 1 OTT · DAL 30% → 47% +17DAL 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P25:37Josh Norris Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (24), Ridly Greig (12)DAL 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 53% → 71% +18OTT 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P28:56Thomas Chabot Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (39), Mathieu Joseph (18)DAL 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 72% → 86% +14OTT 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P219:43Shane Pinto Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (33), Brady Tkachuk (21)DAL 1 – 4 OTT · OTT 91% → 97% +7OTT 91% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 49%
- Fair odds
- OTT -117
- DAL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +11 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +6 Elo | DAL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.627th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.224th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.9% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 88.6%31st of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 4th of 3117–12 | Road vs home | 13–1519th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.