Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Victor HedmanAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists2
- Noah DobsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:29Luke Glendening Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (48), Nikita Kucherov (61)4–2
- P317:25Brock Nelson Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (53)3–2
- P313:44Anders Lee Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Mathew Barzal (43), Noah Dobson (52)3–1
- P25:00Brayden Point Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (60), Victor Hedman (47)3–0
- P15:34Nikita Kucherov Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (46), Nick Perbix (18)2–0
- P14:12Nicholas Paul Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (34), Darren Raddysh (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:12Nicholas Paul Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (34), Darren Raddysh (17)TB 1 – 0 NYI · TB 46% → 61% +15TB 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P15:34Nikita Kucherov Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (46), Nick Perbix (18)TB 2 – 0 NYI · TB 61% → 75% +14TB 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P25:00Brayden Point Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (60), Victor Hedman (47)TB 3 – 0 NYI · TB 81% → 91% +10TB 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P313:44Anders Lee Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Mathew Barzal (43), Noah Dobson (52)TB 3 – 1 NYI · NYI <1% → 1% +1NYI <1% → 1%+1 pts
- P317:25Brock Nelson Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (53)TB 3 – 2 NYI · NYI <1% → 4% +4NYI <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 49%
- Fair odds
- NYI -117
- TB +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −3 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +7 Elo | TB 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 15th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.626th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 90.7%11th of 31 |
| 11th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 31 |
| 24th of 3112–16 | Road vs home | 12–1522nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.