Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals2
- Tom WilsonAssists2
- Connor McMichaelPoints2
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Calvin de HaanAssists1
- Nick PaulPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:58Connor McMichael Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (26), Tom Wilson (11)5–3
- P315:01Rasmus Sandin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (19), Dylan Strome (20)4–3
- P33:06Tyler Motte Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (17)3–3
- P32:42Nicholas Paul Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Sheary (9), Calvin de Haan (5)3–2
- P212:14Anthony Mantha Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (19), T.J. Oshie (8)3–1
- P29:16Brandon Hagel Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (31), Nikita Kucherov (59)2–1
- P116:19Connor McMichael Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (4), Tom Wilson (10)2–0
- P12:30Nicolas Aube-Kubel Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Beck Malenstyn (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:16Brandon Hagel Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (31), Nikita Kucherov (59)WSH 2 – 1 TB · TB 18% → 34% +16TB 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P212:14Anthony Mantha Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (19), T.J. Oshie (8)WSH 3 – 1 TB · WSH 67% → 83% +17WSH 67% → 83%+17 pts
- P32:42Nicholas Paul Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Sheary (9), Calvin de Haan (5)WSH 3 – 2 TB · TB 10% → 27% +17TB 10% → 27%+17 pts
- P33:06Tyler Motte Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (17)WSH 3 – 3 TB · TB 27% → 53% +26TB 27% → 53%+26 pts
- P315:01Rasmus Sandin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (19), Dylan Strome (20)WSH 4 – 3 TB · WSH 48% → 89% +41WSH 48% → 89%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Fair odds
- TB -127
- WSH +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −4 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +65 Elo | TB 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.5 | Margin | 0.015th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.4% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%29th of 31 |
| 28th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 21st of 3111–14 | Road vs home | 17–107th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.