St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Brandon SaadPoints1
Jets- Sean MonahanGoals1
- Josh MorrisseyAssists2
- Sean MonahanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:13Alex Iafallo Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (23), Sean Monahan (23)2–4
- P29:03Brandon Saad Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P115:33Kyle Connor Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (39)1–3
- P110:50Pavel Buchnevich Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Marco Scandella (4), Robert Thomas (47)1–2
- P110:20Brenden Dillon Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (35)0–2
- P18:53Sean Monahan Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (22), Josh Morrissey (38)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:53Sean Monahan Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (22), Josh Morrissey (38)STL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 55% → 70% +15WPG 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P110:50Pavel Buchnevich Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Marco Scandella (4), Robert Thomas (47)STL 1 – 2 WPG · STL 17% → 30% +12STL 17% → 30%+12 pts
- P115:33Kyle Connor Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (39)STL 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 71% → 84% +13WPG 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P29:03Brandon Saad Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSTL 2 – 3 WPG · STL 13% → 27% +14STL 13% → 27%+14 pts
- P310:13Alex Iafallo Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (23), Sean Monahan (23)STL 2 – 4 WPG · WPG 83% → 97% +14WPG 83% → 97%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 60%
- Fair odds
- WPG -127
- STL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −6 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +67 Elo | WPG 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.8% | Shot share | 51.0%13th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 92.5%1st of 31 |
| 10th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 31 |
| 19th of 3112–14 | Road vs home | 18–94th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–2 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.