Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals2
- Josh MorrisseyAssists3
- Josh MorrisseyPoints3
Blackhawks- Tyler JohnsonGoals1
- Jason DickinsonAssists1
- Tyler JohnsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:25Kyle Connor Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (34)3–2
- P319:17Tyler Johnson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (13), Jason Dickinson (11)2–2
- P215:58Colin Blackwell Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (16)2–1
- P21:49Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (33)2–0
- P114:47Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (18), Josh Morrissey (32)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:47Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (18), Josh Morrissey (32)WPG 1 – 0 CHI · WPG 48% → 65% +16WPG 48% → 65%+16 pts
- P21:49Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (33)WPG 2 – 0 CHI · WPG 66% → 81% +15WPG 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P215:58Colin Blackwell Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (16)WPG 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 13% → 29% +16CHI 13% → 29%+16 pts
- P319:17Tyler Johnson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (13), Jason Dickinson (11)WPG 2 – 2 CHI · CHI <1% → 50% +50CHI <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT0:25Kyle Connor Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (34)WPG 3 – 2 CHI · WPG 49% → 90% +41WPG 49% → 90%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 39%
- Fair odds
- CHI -108
- WPG +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +76 Elo | WPG 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −1.430th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.0% | Shot share | 44.4%30th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 11th of 3113–11 | Road vs home | 11–1725th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 2–1 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.