St. Louis Blues at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Zack BolducGoals1
- Brandon SaadAssists1
- Zack BolducPoints1
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Lucas RaymondAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Scoring summary
- P218:34Alex DeBrincat Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (15)1–6
- P216:56J.T. Compher Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Lucas Raymond (32), Michael Rasmussen (13)1–5
- P212:28Zack Bolduc Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (9), Nathan Walker (3)1–4
- P119:02Alex DeBrincat Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (24), Daniel Sprong (21)0–4
- P15:24Robby Fabbri Goal (14) Deflected, assists: none0–3
- P14:21Michael Rasmussen Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (31), Jeff Petry (15)0–2
- P10:33Patrick Kane Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (28), Alex DeBrincat (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:33Patrick Kane Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (28), Alex DeBrincat (29)STL 0 – 1 DET · DET 56% → 69% +14DET 56% → 69%+14 pts
- P14:21Michael Rasmussen Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (31), Jeff Petry (15)STL 0 – 2 DET · DET 70% → 81% +12DET 70% → 81%+12 pts
- P15:24Robby Fabbri Goal (14) Deflected, assists: noneSTL 0 – 3 DET · DET 82% → 90% +8DET 82% → 90%+8 pts
- P119:02Alex DeBrincat Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (24), Daniel Sprong (21)STL 0 – 4 DET · DET 93% → 97% +4DET 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P212:28Zack Bolduc Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (9), Nathan Walker (3)STL 1 – 4 DET · STL 1% → 4% +3STL 1% → 4%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Fair odds
- DET -125
- STL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +9 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +53 Elo | DET 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.9% | Shot share | 47.3%24th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 31 |
| 16th of 3112–13 | Road vs home | 16–1213th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.