Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Jack JohnsonAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints1
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals1
- Dylan LarkinAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:42Patrick Kane Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (26), Ben Chiarot (11)1–2
- P312:02Dylan Larkin Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: David Perron (16), Shayne Gostisbehere (27)1–1
- P24:48Nathan MacKinnon Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (43), Jack Johnson (10)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:48Nathan MacKinnon Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (43), Jack Johnson (10)COL 1 – 0 DET · COL 46% → 65% +19COL 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P312:02Dylan Larkin Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: David Perron (16), Shayne Gostisbehere (27)COL 1 – 1 DET · DET 17% → 52% +35DET 17% → 52%+35 pts
- OT3:42Patrick Kane Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (26), Ben Chiarot (11)COL 1 – 2 DET · DET 51% → >99% +49DET 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −27 | +7 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.68 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +47 Elo | DET 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 47.2%25th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 31 |
| 11th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 31 |
| 18th of 3113–15 | Road vs home | 15–1213th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.