Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Logan StankovenGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists1
- Logan StankovenPoints1
Avalanche- Andrew CoglianoGoals1
- Andrew CoglianoAssists1
- Andrew CoglianoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P214:15Artturi Lehkonen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (23), Mikko Rantanen (45)1–5
- P27:58Nathan MacKinnon Goal (35) Backhand, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (10), Cale Makar (49)1–4
- P27:09Andrew Cogliano Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Wagner (1)1–3
- P15:58Mikko Rantanen Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (63)1–2
- P12:08Joel Kiviranta Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (12), Devon Toews (23)1–1
- P11:00Logan Stankoven Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (23), Jason Robertson (39)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:00Logan Stankoven Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (23), Jason Robertson (39)DAL 1 – 0 COL · DAL 41% → 55% +15DAL 41% → 55%+15 pts
- P12:08Joel Kiviranta Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (12), Devon Toews (23)DAL 1 – 1 COL · COL 45% → 59% +15COL 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P15:58Mikko Rantanen Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (63)DAL 1 – 2 COL · COL 59% → 73% +14COL 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P27:09Andrew Cogliano Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Wagner (1)DAL 1 – 3 COL · COL 75% → 88% +13COL 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P27:58Nathan MacKinnon Goal (35) Backhand, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (10), Cale Makar (49)DAL 1 – 4 COL · COL 88% → 95% +7COL 88% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 60%
- Fair odds
- COL -146
- DAL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +71 Elo | COL 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.6% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 89.8%23rd of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3118–13 | Road vs home | 20–61st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–2 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.