Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Tyler BertuzziGoals3
- William NylanderAssists3
- Tyler BertuzziPoints3
Avalanche- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:09Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (47), Auston Matthews (25)4–3
- P34:41Mikko Rantanen Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (62), Bowen Byram (12)3–3
- P216:48Mitchell Marner Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (14), TJ Brodie (16)3–2
- P214:45Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (46), Max Domi (23)2–2
- P113:42Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (49), William Nylander (45)1–2
- P111:07Andrew Cogliano Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (61), Mikko Rantanen (44)0–2
- P12:16Artturi Lehkonen Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (60), Cale Makar (48)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:16Artturi Lehkonen Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (60), Cale Makar (48)TOR 0 – 1 COL · COL 55% → 69% +14COL 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P214:45Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (46), Max Domi (23)TOR 2 – 2 COL · TOR 26% → 46% +21TOR 26% → 46%+21 pts
- P216:48Mitchell Marner Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (14), TJ Brodie (16)TOR 3 – 2 COL · TOR 47% → 69% +23TOR 47% → 69%+23 pts
- P34:41Mikko Rantanen Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (62), Bowen Byram (12)TOR 3 – 3 COL · COL 26% → 53% +27COL 26% → 53%+27 pts
- P317:09Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (47), Auston Matthews (25)TOR 4 – 3 COL · TOR 49% → 95% +46TOR 49% → 95%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Fair odds
- COL -125
- TOR +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +6 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +53 Elo | COL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 31 |
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.7% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%22nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 12th of 3114–12 | Road vs home | 20–51st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.