Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Max DomiGoals2
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Max DomiPoints2
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Shea TheodoreAssists2
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:35Auston Matthews Goal (52) Tip-In, assists: Pontus Holmberg (7), Mitchell Marner (48)7–3
- P31:25Michael Amadio Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (21), Chandler Stephenson (22)6–3
- P30:59Jonathan Marchessault Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (17), Brendan Brisson (3)6–2
- P215:36Pontus Holmberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–1
- P211:44Max Domi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Benoit (3), Mitchell Marner (47)5–1
- P20:51William Karlsson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (17), Shea Theodore (16)4–1
- P116:11Max Domi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (44), Tyler Bertuzzi (16)4–0
- P114:20John Tavares Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (11), Bobby McMann (8)3–0
- P111:10David Kampf Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Reaves (1)2–0
- P110:00Jake McCabe Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:00Jake McCabe Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: noneTOR 1 – 0 VGK · TOR 46% → 61% +16TOR 46% → 61%+16 pts
- P111:10David Kampf Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Reaves (1)TOR 2 – 0 VGK · TOR 62% → 76% +14TOR 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P114:20John Tavares Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (11), Bobby McMann (8)TOR 3 – 0 VGK · TOR 77% → 87% +11TOR 77% → 87%+11 pts
- P116:11Max Domi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (44), Tyler Bertuzzi (16)TOR 4 – 0 VGK · TOR 88% → 95% +7TOR 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P20:51William Karlsson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (17), Shea Theodore (16)TOR 4 – 1 VGK · VGK 4% → 10% +6VGK 4% → 10%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 54%
- Fair odds
- VGK -122
- TOR +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +6 | TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +29 Elo | VGK 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 91.5%5th of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 14th of 3113–12 | Road vs home | 19–94th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.