Winnipeg Jets at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals2
- Josh MorrisseyAssists3
- Josh MorrisseyPoints3
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Andrei SvechnikovAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:49Nino Niederreiter Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (12), Josh Morrissey (42)5–3
- P316:47Sean Monahan Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–3
- P35:40Mark Scheifele Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Josh Morrissey (41)3–3
- P33:02Nino Niederreiter Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Nate Schmidt (9), Adam Lowry (18)2–3
- P31:36Kyle Connor Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (25), Josh Morrissey (40)1–3
- P219:12Sebastian Aho Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (24), Michael Bunting (23)0–3
- P215:54Teuvo Teravainen Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (40), Andrei Svechnikov (23)0–2
- P210:12Martin Necas Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (18), Jalen Chatfield (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:12Martin Necas Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (18), Jalen Chatfield (10)WPG 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 54% → 73% +19CAR 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P215:54Teuvo Teravainen Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (40), Andrei Svechnikov (23)WPG 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 75% → 89% +15CAR 75% → 89%+15 pts
- P33:02Nino Niederreiter Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Nate Schmidt (9), Adam Lowry (18)WPG 2 – 3 CAR · WPG 7% → 22% +15WPG 7% → 22%+15 pts
- P35:40Mark Scheifele Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Josh Morrissey (41)WPG 3 – 3 CAR · WPG 21% → 47% +27WPG 21% → 47%+27 pts
- P316:47Sean Monahan Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 4 – 3 CAR · WPG 49% → 94% +45WPG 49% → 94%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 58%
- Fair odds
- CAR -126
- WPG +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +20 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.51 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +59 Elo | CAR 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%27th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 13th of 3114–12 | Road vs home | 18–118th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.